Ballon d'Or owner investigates suspected results leak after Polymarket wagers

Groupe Amaury, the owner of France Football, which presents the annual Ballon d’Or awards, said on Saturday (Oct. 31) it was investigating whether confidential voting results had leaked ahead of the Oct. 26 ceremony in London. Organizers are preparing a criminal complaint after a cluster of anonymous prediction-market accounts reportedly made nearly $200,000 by betting on the precise finishing order.

The inquiry follows reporting by French financial news outlet Upside, which identified 12 Polymarket accounts that collectively wagered around $264,000 on the top five. Groupe Amaury said in a statement to French newspaper Le Parisien that it took allegations of leaked results and potentially fraudulent wagers seriously. The group said investigations were underway to establish the facts and determine whether anyone bore responsibility. French police have also been informed, according to The Guardian.

Betting patterns

Upside first flagged the suspicious activity on Oct. 23, three days before the winners were revealed. The accounts under scrutiny were created between October 1 and October 20, shortly after voting closed. Seven had placed no bets on other subjects, while six began trading within 15 minutes of being opened.

An analysis of blockchain transactions published by Upside showed approximately $309,000 deposited across the accounts and $500,000 subsequently withdrawn. The first withdrawal reportedly occurred 19 minutes after the results were announced. Upside traced transactions linking several accounts, but could not establish that all 12 belonged to one person.

The results

Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane became the first Englishman to win the men’s Ballon d’Or in 25 years, with Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi rounding out the top five. The Ballon d’Or is determined by a jury of international journalists, with the results kept confidential until the ceremony.

Casino.org reported that no leak has been established and the identities of the bettors remain unknown, noting that correct predictions alone are not evidence of wrongdoing.